Post by W on Aug 12, 2019 4:39:23 GMT
The Werenski Sweepstakes and what that means to the future of PTPHL
Here's just my take on the situation. Juddy has a tough case here that I do not envy having to deal with. As a PA this is a major decision that you can't just roll a die on. That would be irresponsible. Zach Werenski's signing sends a message to the rest of the league, what that message (as far as Defenders are concerned) will be reflected with this one decision. The team that gets rewarded sets a standard. We'll get to see Juddy's preference and philosphy as a PA with this one signing and could likely affect all future UFAs. Here's what we're talking about
If he favors winning:
Washington is easily the best choice no contest. They have the best player, have the most body of work to show what they're team can do (opposed to the others) - but at the lowest cap hit. This would send the message to the league that winners will get breaks, making more GMs value winning (say over tanking) but also harder to knock off perennial contenders. We've seen this kind of signing happen before with Datsyuk in Ottawa (or was it Ovechkin?). After winning the Cup, the one year UFA made the choice to unretire to win a Cup. Obviously the best choice is the team with the best credentials who just won the thing, but also had a tonne of cap space because that UFA was a one year deal. Washington is different in that they haven't won anything yet, but it does fall within the same philosophy: winners get breaks. But those who would take issue would pine "the rich just get richer." Well that's not untrue for a reason but then nothing changes in the league.
On the other end of the spectrum: money.
These two teams could not be more opposite, but if salary is what matters here, Pittsburgh should get him. Cap hits create a fair environment for everyone to partake. That's the point of having a salary cap, to prevent teams from becoming too good. The onus for bad salary management is on the GM, PAs are merely responding to the market. At some point as a GM you have to say no, otherwise you give players/PAs all the power and eventually no one has any cap space (some of you might recall Sumo's old league where that very thing happened). Perhaps Juddy doesn't see it that way though, I don't know the guy. A simple PAing technique is to simply favor that he wants his players paid the most possible, and that's fine. PIT has the most and Freddy is big on spending all of it right this moment. So best contract will be from them.
However, like the Washington situation, there's a consequence. If Pittsburgh is able to sign the best UFA after tanking the season prior, what message does that send to anyone trying to compete? If you're going on principle that tanking is looked down upon, where the GM literally put all his eggs (picks) in one basket (draft class), and then says he's done rebuilding and can now contend. Not only does that circumvent the point of tanking vs contending, but it also is a slap in the face to those who've been rebuilding for the past few seasons, some of you since S1 are still trying to make it. What's the point in winning if the biggest loser gets rewarded both with a healthy draft and UFA? Pittsburgh just so happens to have money because he sold everything. But not signing to the most money also hurts the value of money in a salary cap era. It Pittsburgh wins, prepare for a tankathon.
And in between them, Buffalo and Colorado.
These two have finally managed to come out of their re-tools and rebuilds as up-and-coming contenders, but neither can compete with the money of Pittsburgh or the winning pedigree of Washington. Perhaps they are in the best medium to acquire the best UFA on the market. Or, he could just sign himself to more of the same thing for the rest of his career.
In Buffalo there are a few very offensive weapons in the top 6 along with a shutdown line and a study two-way line, but on the back end they currently have two Werenskis'. Getting a third would give them a 1-2-3 punch of any pairing they wanted, or load the top one and half the second, squelch the 3rd. Without Werenski, Buffalo can still make the playoffs. That's enticing to a UFA who may not want to bear a full load.
In Colorado you have the opposite: 3 lines of more spread talent and a 4th, with a game of pin the tail on any shutdown D (aside from Leach). Werenski is the one piece they need and would give Colorado one of the deeper D core's in the fille. They're not as puck savvy as most, but they all do their job. Without Werenski, Colorado might struggle to make the post season. That's enticing to a UFA who may want to have the most minutes available, it's the one thing Colorado has over the other teams. Except maybe Pittsburgh. the best thing about signing in Colorado though is that he never has to try and stop a Mac attack.
If he signs in Colorado, it means he favors ice time and in a philosophical sense, long rebuilds with loyalty are rewarded, but it also means you can sign big names without having to prove anything yet; a step above Pittsburgh, a step below Buffalo.
If he signs in Buffalo, it means he favors not being the main guy and having a strong core around him already. In a philosophical sense, it would also mean that being an active GM on the trade front shows initiative to win, but it also means loyalty isn't valued as much.
Let's not forget Columbus.
(I forgot Columbus)
There's always the change to go back there and render this whole thing pointless. That would be the safest bet, but also the most boring. In his list of prerequisites, Juddy stated Werenski wants an active GM. If he goes back to Columbus, that would be a lie. On the other hand, Weresnki wasn't ever supposed to test in the first place. If the Blue Jackets sign him, it's like saying "let's pretend this never happened." Which is fine in its own right. It keeps the peace. But on what principle?
There's always the change to go back there and render this whole thing pointless. That would be the safest bet, but also the most boring. In his list of prerequisites, Juddy stated Werenski wants an active GM. If he goes back to Columbus, that would be a lie. On the other hand, Weresnki wasn't ever supposed to test in the first place. If the Blue Jackets sign him, it's like saying "let's pretend this never happened." Which is fine in its own right. It keeps the peace. But on what principle?
But this is all speculation. Maybe Juddy sees something that he's going to base the signing on that isn't covered here. PA rep might make a brief comeback if all things are equal, that's literally why it was created, except hasn't existed yet in this league. Perhaps this is just a one-off and the standard will change next season. There's even the possibility that Juddy closes his eyes and rolls a die.
4+16=20